Investing Amid Low Expected Returns

Learn how to invest wisely in a world of low returns by focusing on discipline, diversification, and long-term principles.

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Author:Antti Ilmanen

Description

Investing today is more difficult than ever. Around the world, asset prices are high, interest rates are low, and the chances of earning strong returns are shrinking. For many investors, this feels discouraging. The strategies that worked in the past may not work as well in the future. This means we need to change the way we think about investing. The key is to stop obsessing over quick wins and instead build a process that is resilient, balanced, and patient.

The first idea to understand is that we may be entering a long period of lower returns. Stocks, bonds, and other assets have already delivered high gains for decades, but the bill eventually comes due. Some of the gains we enjoyed in the past may have been borrowed from the future. That means the coming years could bring smaller profits, or even sudden corrections. It is tempting to chase the same high numbers by taking on more risk, but this often leads to disappointment or even large losses.

Instead of chasing outcomes, investors should focus on what they can control: their process. This means creating a disciplined plan and sticking to it. Outcomes in the short run are often random. You cannot control whether the market goes up or down tomorrow, but you can control how you build your portfolio, how much you save, how widely you diversify, and how patient you remain. By shifting your attention from results to process, you put yourself in a stronger position to handle whatever the market delivers.

One way to strengthen your process is to understand the different sources of return. These include liquid asset classes like stocks and bonds, less liquid investments like real estate and private equity, and styles of investing such as value, momentum, carry, and defensive strategies. Each of these comes with its own risks and trade-offs. Stocks have historically delivered high returns, but they are also volatile. Bonds are safer, but in today’s world they yield very little. Illiquid investments like private equity can sometimes provide higher returns, but they are harder to exit and may hide risks. Style-based strategies like value (buying cheap assets) or momentum (following strong trends) have shown potential, but none of them work all the time. The important point is that no single source of return is guaranteed. Combining different approaches wisely is the only way to build resilience.

This leads to the second key principle: diversification. Diversification is the art of not putting all your eggs in one basket. Many investors think they are diversified because they own different stocks, but true diversification goes deeper. It means spreading across asset classes, geographies, and strategies that do not all move in the same direction. A properly diversified portfolio might sometimes feel boring, because not every part of it will be winning at the same time. But over the long run, this mix reduces risk and makes the overall ride smoother. Diversification works best when paired with patience and discipline, because the benefits often appear over years rather than months.

Another concept that often gets misunderstood is alpha. Alpha is the idea of earning returns above what the market naturally provides. For example, if the stock market grows 5% and your portfolio grows 7%, that extra 2% is your alpha. Everyone loves the idea of beating the market, but in reality, it is extremely difficult to do so consistently. Markets are competitive and efficient, meaning that once a good idea is widely known, it quickly stops working. Even legendary investors like Warren Buffett and George Soros have found it harder over time to generate consistent alpha. Most of what looks like alpha is often just exposure to regular market risks. For this reason, investors should be cautious about paying high fees for promises of market-beating performance. It is safer to build a portfolio that relies on broad, diversified sources of return rather than chasing rare and fleeting alpha.

Alongside these structural ideas, there are also behavioral lessons that matter just as much. Many investors fall into bad habits that cost them dearly. They trade too much, chasing the latest trend. They hold on to “lottery stocks” that have a small chance of huge gains but a high chance of losses. They switch managers at the wrong times, firing underperformers just before they recover and hiring recent winners just before they stumble. They save too little and take on too much risk. These habits are human, but they are also destructive. To succeed, you must resist them by developing self-discipline. Good investing often means doing less, not more. It means saving steadily, sticking with your plan, and ignoring the noise of daily market moves.

A disciplined process also includes setting realistic expectations. In a low-return world, expecting 10% or 12% every year is unrealistic. By setting your sights lower, you protect yourself from disappointment and reckless decisions. Patience becomes easier when you know that slow and steady progress is still a win. Humility is equally important: no investor knows the future. Accepting this uncertainty helps you avoid overconfidence and prepares you to handle downturns calmly.

At the same time, costs matter. In an environment of low returns, high fees can wipe out much of your profit. Keeping expenses low, whether through index funds, careful manager selection, or efficient strategies, is one of the most reliable ways to improve your net returns. Think of it as controlling the things you can, while accepting the things you cannot.

In the end, investing in a low-return world is not about finding shortcuts. It is about building resilience. That means focusing on process over outcome, diversifying across many types of assets, avoiding destructive habits, setting realistic expectations, and keeping costs low. The future may bring surprises, corrections, and periods of frustration, but investors who follow these timeless principles will stand a better chance of achieving their financial goals.

The real lesson is this: wealth is not built by constantly chasing the highest returns. Wealth is built by staying disciplined, patient, and thoughtful even when the environment is tough. In a world of low expected returns, the investors who succeed will not be the boldest risk-takers, but the ones who prepare carefully, act with humility, and stick with their strategy through thick and thin. By focusing on process, discipline, and diversification, you can still grow your wealth, protect it from shocks, and ensure a stronger financial future.

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